Monday, 15 December 2008

KENT AND PEAK OIL

KENT PRESS RELEASE – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – Monday 15th December 2008 - 27 Audley Avenue, Tonbridge, Kent TN9 1XF - www.kentgreenparty.org 0845 257 4236 – 01732 355185 – Mobile: 07747 036192

KENT AND PEAK OIL

The International Energy Agency has admitted for the first time that it expects global oil supplies to peak by 2020 (1). This is up to 14 years later than expected by other organisations and researchers(2). This has both negative and positive implications for Kent. Steve Dawe outlines some key examples of both:

“Peak oil means that cheap, accessible oil is no longer obtainable and that remaining oil supplies will be more expensive. In Kent, it means that plans for airport expansion at Manston, Lydd and Rochester should be mothballed. Plans to expand Dover Eastern Docks should be shelved as rising fuel costs and recession will diminish shipping. The China Gateway warehousing project in Thanet will cease to be viable as the costs of moving freight rise steadily. Plans for housing in and around Ashford and the Thames Gateway need to scaled down in favour of the cheaper option of using the County’s c24,000 empty properties, and derelict sites (3). Out of town shopping centres, already feeling the pinch in the recession, will be less profitable as people seek goods closer to home to save on petrol costs.

“The good news is that peak oil will encourage energy efficiency and more use of town centres. New electric cars are becoming widely available which will cut air pollution and traffic noise. Because oil prices influence rail ticket prices, more people will seek to work at home – allowing more time for partners and family life. The boom in internet businesses will continue. Local food production, sale and processing within Kent will be boosted as food from elsewhere becomes too expensive to consider. The expansion of energy efficiency and renewable energy for homes and businesses will bring construction workers back into work. All of these initiatives will help the country out of recession. There is only one problem. The major denier of Peak Oil as a problem in the UK is our own Government, meaning it is unprepared for the kind of Green industrial revolution the country needs to meet the challenges of the current recession.”

Ends

FURTHER INFORMATION: Steve Dawe on 01732 355185 or 0845 257 4236 or mobile 07747 036192. Contact address as above. Steve Dawe is on the Green Party list for the European Elections due in June 2009.


Notes:
1. See The Guardian – article, editorial and interview in supplement 15th December 2008. See also IEA website: http://www.iea.org/
2. Peak Oil Task Force report suggests 2013: http://peakoil.solarcentury.com/ ; a 2005 report to the US Government suggests 2006-2016: http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas suggested a peak of 2009 in its first report, a figure consistent with a similar report by Exxon: http://www.peakoil.net/ Transport researchers Gilbert and Perl suggest the best available evidence gives an end to cheap, accessible oil at about 2012: Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl – Transport Revolutions: moving people and freight without oil (Earthscan, 2008).
3. Estimates of empty properties in Kent include about 18,000 homes and 6000 industrial buildings which could potentially be converted to housing. However, these figures under-state the availability of brownfield sites which could be used for housing including empty sites in industrial estates all over Kent.

1 comment:

Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D. said...

Independent studies (reviewed in the Peak Oil Report

http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

by Clifford J. Wirth) conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008 to 2010)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

Independent studies conclude that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. Because the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, state and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/